Monday, November 30, 2015

Resources on Existential Risk


"Modern science is well-acquainted with the idea of natural risks, such as asteroid impacts or extreme volcanic events, that might threaten our species as a whole. It is also a familiar idea that we ourselves may threaten our own existence, as a consequence of our technology and science. Such home-grown “existential risk” – the threat of global nuclear war, and of possible extreme effects of anthropogenic climate change – has been with us for several decades.
However, it is a comparatively new idea that developing technologies might lead – perhaps accidentally, and perhaps very rapidly, once a certain point is reached – to direct, extinction-level threats to our species. Such concerns have been expressed aboutartificial intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and nanotechnology, for example...."
The Cambridge University  Centre for the Study of Existential Risk resources page
http://cser.org/resources-reading/

In Case You Need a Distraction from Climate Change Stuff




From the All of Humanities Eggs in One Basket Department
National Space Weather Strategy

National Space Weather Action Plan 

What is "space weather" 

NOAA Forcast/Prediction Center

NOAA Space Weather Enthusiast Dashboard: 
 http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Test



Should be streaming by this evening, CDT

OnPoint:
"Diplomacy And Debate At COP 21 Paris Climate Talks
World leaders converge in Paris for the big climate talks. We’ll look at what it will take to get a global climate agreement..."
http://onpoint.wbur.org/2015/11/30/cop21-paris-climate-talks-climate-change

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Law and Forgotten Liberty

Mosaicin Library of Congress representing both the judicial and legislative aspects of law. The woman on the throne holds a sword to chastise the guilty and a palm branch to reward the meritorious. Glory surrounds her head, and the aegis of Minerva signifies the armor of righteousness and wisdom.


A very interesting legal history of corporate powers in the United States:
Coates, IV, John C., Corporate Speech and the First Amendment: History, Data, and Implications (February 27, 2015). 

"Abstract:      

This Article draws on empirical analysis, history, and economic theory to show that corporations have begun to displace individuals as direct beneficiaries of the First Amendment and to outline an argument that the shift reflects economically harmful rent seeking. The history of corporations, regulation of commercial speech, and First Amendment case law is retold, with an emphasis on the role of constitutional entrepreneur Justice Lewis Powell, who prompted the Supreme Court to invent corporate and commercial speech rights. The chronology shows that First Amendment doctrine long post-dated both pervasive regulation of commercial speech and the rise of the U.S. as the world’s leading economic power – a chronology with implications for originalists, and for policy. Supreme Court and Courts of Appeals decisions are analyzed to quantify the degree to which corporations have displaced individuals as direct beneficiaries of First Amendment rights, and to show that they have done so recently, but with growing speed since Virginia Pharmacy, Bellotti, and Central Hudson. Nearly half of First Amendment challenges now benefit business corporations and trade groups, rather than other kinds of organizations or individuals, and the trend-line is up. Such cases commonly constitute a form of corruption: the use of litigation by managers to entrench reregulation in their personal interests at the expense of shareholders, consumers, and employees. In aggregate, they degrade the rule of law, rendering it less predictable, general and clear. This corruption risks significant economic harms in addition to the loss of a republican form of government."

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2566785

Friday, November 20, 2015

Miami Boom


Will ingenuity & entrepreneurship save the day?

 " Climate change and Miami. We’ll look at the city’s booming real estate market and its future in a time of rising seas."
  http://onpoint.wbur.org/2015/11/19/miami-miami-beach-real-estate-climate-change


The Friday musical interlude:
 Can-Utility and the Coastliners

Tis the Season





I thought I should explain myself. Why I use the phrase “recreational killing”, instead of “hunting”  and my view on “hunting”.

Note: I am not against “hunting” in principle, (what I call recreational killing). I am not against what I do call hunting, at all.
In early adolescence I worked a summer in a slaughter house, and also worked as an assistant to a large animal veterinarian for another summer, I probably know in more detail than the reader, where my animal protein actually comes from. I am myself, on omnivorous scavenger.  I frequent restaurants, grocery stores, etc. (Scavenging is both a carnivorous and a herbivorous feeding behavior in which the scavenger feeds on dead animal and plant material present in its habitat.)
Therefore, i do not hunt, nor do i take part in recreational killing. My personal choice on this is based on two reasons:
First, I already, just by living as part of a large, technologically advanced society place a lot of pressure on wildlife via our land use practices that i as a member benefit from. I feel better not adding to it.
The second reason is simply an aesthetic one. I find wild life to be more interesting when they are alive. So i prefer to observe them.

I do have quarrel with the allowed technology of recreational killing, and this is also addressed below. But I do not act on that quarrel, as if for some bizarre reason I got my way, it would reduce tourism and other revenues, which are important in my area and that for my conspecifics, would outweigh other matters.

A disambiguation of hunting terms

Terms for “hunting”

 In the spirit of George Orwell’s essay, Politics and the English Language, I am proposing the following disambiguation of “hunting/hunter” when describing a human behavior set, for the 21st century.

Hunt:
Pursuing any non-domesticated living organism with the intention of killing it for eating, necessitated by poverty. (Hunter: one who hunts)

Recreational Killing:
Pursuing any non-domesticated living organism, other than another human, with the intention of killing it for any reason other than eating it, necessitated by poverty. (Recreational killer: one who recreationally kills).

The use of the “sport/sportsman” words re these behaviors.
Using these terms in re hunting or recreational killing behaviors does not make any sense. “Sport” is a physical activity that is governed by a set of rules or customs and often engaged in competitively. This makes sport a subset of the class “game”. In a game, all sides know it is a game. Prey does not know it is a game, and for prey, it is definitely not a game.
Efficiency, Predation, and Recreational Killing:
A reflection on the technology generally allowed for recreational killing, and the annual harvest of the White Tail Deer in Wisconsin

Human's are the main predator of the White Tail, but their method is biologically inefficient. What i mean by efficient in this context is “hunting” that selects for the injured, sick, old, slow, the very young  etc. Efficient “hunting” makes for healthier, fitter prey.
Certainly on our ancestral landscape we were efficient hunters during a lot of our history, and the Kalahari Bushmen still do it the old fashioned way (Google around on Kalahari Bushmen “persistence hunting” Here is a neat video of the technique).

The traditional top predator of the White Tail Deer was of course, the Wolf. Wolf and their prey co-evolved. Wolves can read by scent and sight the slightest signs of which deer in a group has an injury or sickness, or is an infant, therefore, is easier to take down. In a sense they are the ultimate meat inspector for deer. The predator prey relationship is all about biological energetics. The wolf is an obligate hunter. From a wolf's instinctual "point of view", what food can i get with the least expenditure of energy and least chance of damage to myself?

Despite not being obligate hunters, we have centered our technique of hunting and recreational killing on the same measure as the wolf; kill with the least expenditure of energy and least chance of damage to myself. Therefore we use projectile weapons of various types. This, and all the bait piles, cameras etc. creates a "hunt" wherein being able to pick out the biologically "easy" deer irrelevant. From the deer’s perspective; it by recreational behavior, hunting behavior or vehicular collisions, we are their main predator now. But we are grossly inefficient, biologically speaking. Our land use behavior that results in a predominance of meadow/field woodlot edge areas, favors the deer presence also.

So, why should we be surprised, or concerned about the rise of CWD? We have created a White Tail population which is the perfect home for disease growth. There are lots of them, mostly not as "fit" as their ancestors, and they tend to clump together more during rest periods due to our control of the landscape. CWD is probably just the first problem we have noticed.
So what can we do? Probably nothing.

First, the “hunt” is a part of the tourism economy. If the participants were limited to say, the tools of the Bushman, there would probably be fewer participants, and therefore less  revenue flow from the participants.

Obviously the easy, direct way is to make sure there are a lot more wolves. Unpaid meat inspectors that do not need labs to spot and take out the sick. But our archaic instinct based antipathy towards non-human top predators make that unlikely.

 
Modern persistent "hunters" chasing an antelope


A proposal long term solution, and generally, a biologically useful approach to recreational killing (it would take a long time to get to efficiency)

So if we wanna be the top predator, we have to change, if we want to be efficient. No seasons, no bag limits, no age or gender restrictions. Year around recreational killing.  No traps, bait piles, cameras etc. And most importantly, no projectile weapons. Handheld weapons only. Knives, clubs, spears etc. Run them down. Fitter deer, fitter killers.
After many, many years, perhaps we would regain the sight hunting skills of our ancestors, or at least that of the Kalahari Bushmen?

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

The Fusion of Degrowth & Ecomodernism?
















 Child-like scrawl by me

More to come on this one....Think i will call the idea, Growing Up
While thinkin about stuff i thought back to what my usual winning strategy when playing SimEarth (a game that James Lovelock was adviser for) back in the day.


BTW: you can play it online apparently...

From the baby & the bath water department

Re Degrowth vs Ecomodernism
 An interesting series of posts, here. Excerpt:

Poster 1
"While I completely agree with this critique of the Ecomodernist
Manifesto, I can't help thinking that the debate here is missing some
big picture synergy between the two arguments. We need to zoom out a long way to see this though, let me explain.

If humanity is ever to become a space faring race, traveling through the solar system and beyond, our capabilities and attitudes will likely have much in common with an advanced future version of what the Ecomodernists are describing (i.e. an enhanced and expanded version of the growth economy with a core technology driven view). I blogged on this idea back in 2013: http://blog.greenstage.co.nz/2...
What this Ecomodernist Manifesto is doing is effectively applying this
future space faring human race's capabilities to the here and now (and doing so before we have that capability, before we need to and in a situation where it is definitely not our best option).

What they are ultimately missing is the recognition that humanity is part of nature and that all life on earth is operating in a closed and finely interwoven and interdependent system. This view is fundamental
to maintaining humanities and all life on earths richness and strength (i.e. we are traveling on space ship Earth and humanity has rightly or wrongly managed to grab the controls).

Lets not screw it up (a steady state economy would be a safe approach from here), but lets also not lose sight of the bigger opportunities beyond Earth and the technologies and capabilities that vision will require. I also hope that humanity can grow some humility combined with what might be described as spirituality in the process. A good place to start would be recognizing that humanity and all life (or more specifically consciousness) is probably just the universe waking up and looking at itself in wonder."

Poster 2, Reply from Short Attention Span Theatre:
"You really need to stop living in your fantasy world of space exploration. Degrowth is about connecting with nature and becoming a more tight-knit society, not about becoming space pioneers."

Another's Meditation on the Ecomodernist vs Degrowth debate

From the blog A Chemist in Langley: 

Part 1 http://achemistinlangley.blogspot.com/2015/05/on-ecomodernism-and-degrowth-part-i.html

Part 2: http://achemistinlangley.blogspot.com/2015/05/ecomodernism-and-degrowth-part-ii_12.html

Sunday, November 15, 2015

A bit of Third Culture Training


From one of my favorite websites...

"The Edge Foundation, Inc. is an association of science and technology intellectuals created in 1988 as an outgrowth of The Reality Club. Currently, its main activity is contributing to the edge.org website, edited by publisher and businessman John Brockman. The site is an online magazine exploring scientific and intellectual ideas."


Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Super Forecasting

Speaking of Walter Truett Anderson...

"If you’re getting dizzy spells trying to figure out how the world works these days, Walter Truett Anderson’s latest book – Reality Isn’t What It Used To Be (Harper & Row, 1990) – could come as something of a lifeline. The book’s subtitle sums up its contents: "Theatrical Politics, Ready-to-Wear Religion, Global Myths, Primitive Chic, and Other Wonders of the Postmodern World." In it Anderson describes how most of what we consider to be "reality" is socially constructed (hence he’s a "constructivist"), how pluralism is now a fact of contemporary life, and how the political and cultural structures we’ve created are being rocked by our growing disbelief in systems of belief. ..."

Shill or Serious? The Question of the Rose


"We are as gods and might as well get good at it."
Opening sentence of the Purpose of the Whole Earth Catalog, 1968

Thanks to Su for the heads up on this one.
Ecomodernism? A Manifesto?
"As scholars, scientists, campaigners, and citizens, we write with the conviction that knowledge and technology, applied with wisdom, might allow for a good, or even great, Anthropocene. A good Anthropocene demands that humans use their growing social, economic, and technological powers to make life better for people, stabilize the climate, and protect the natural world."
http://www.ecomodernism.org/manifesto-english/

A piece on the Manifesto by someone who thinks it is wrong*
http://wolvesofdouglascountywisconsin.com/2015/11/15/the-ecomodernist-manifesto-is-a-program-for-genocide-and-ecocide/

And, a "Degrowth" response to the Manafesto (thanks Jerry for the link )  http://www.resilience.org/stories/2015-05-06/a-degrowth-response-to-an-ecomodernist-manifesto

The creators of the Manifesto?
http://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/voices/michael-shellenberger-and-ted-nordhaus/an

SourceWatch entry on the Breakthrough Institute

A presentation by an institute fellow

Google Scholar search string on ecomodernism



"You become responsible, forever, for what you have tamed." 

Antoine de Saint-Exupery

Are these related precursors? (a straight question, i do not know)
Whole Earth Discipline


Reconstructing Earth: Technology and Environment in the Age of Humans


"I am not here to argue that the human species ought to take responsibility for evolution on the planet, and begin through public and private institutions to make collective decisions about such matters. If that were the question to be decided I would advocate that we put it off for a few centuries or more--let things run themselves while we get accustomed to the idea of evolutionary governance, develop the appropriate ethics and myths and political structures, and perhaps mature a bit. However, that is not the question before us, since we are already governing evolution. This is the great paradox about the threshold: It is not out there ahead of us somewhere, a line from which we might conceivably draw back. We are well across it. To say that we are not ready for evolutionary governance is equivalent to saying that a teenage child is not ready for puberty; the statement may be true, but it is not much help." 
By the author,  Walter Truett Anderson.

*In which the writer employs the classic America hyperbolic trope; offering a fine illustration of Godwin's Law

What a Day That Was*



Thanks to Mary T. for the heads up on this one. 

My question is if this story was written for a high-end scenario planning exercise, would this be a middle case or the worst case story?
http://billmoyers.com/2015/11/13/splinterlands-the-view-from-2050/

One of the links in the piece:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/02/150212-megadrought-southwest-water-climate-environment/

*And once again, i cannot resist...

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Two Deep Sustainability Classics



I am in the process of reading Social Systems, Niklas Luhmann, (1984) for the first time. The link above is in PDF format.
I also found a PDf format link of this classic book.
General System Theory Foundations, Development, Applications by Ludwig von Bertalanffy (1968) 

A Luhmann quote i learned this week:
"Reality then is an illusion. But the illusion itself is real."

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

From the Department of Keeping all the Pieces


 "And the LORD God said, Behold, the man is become as one of us, to know good and evil: and now, lest he put forth his hand, and take also of the tree of life, and eat, and live for ever..." Genesis 3:22

  "For the gods keep hidden from men the means of life. Else you would easily do work enough in a day to supply you for a full year even without working; soon would you put away your rudder over the smoke, and the fields worked by ox and sturdy mule would run to waste. But Zeus in the anger of his heart hid it, because Prometheus the crafty deceived him; therefore he planned sorrow and mischief against men. He hid fire; but that the noble son of Iapetus stole again for men from Zeus the counselor in a hollow fennel-stalk, so that Zeus who delights in thunder did not see it. But afterwards Zeus who gathers the clouds said to him in anger:
Son of Iapetus, surpassing all in cunning, you are glad that you have outwitted me and stolen fire--a great plague to you yourself and to men that shall be. But I will give men as the price for fire an evil thing in which they may all be glad of heart while they embrace their own destruction."
Works and Days, Hesiod, ll. 42-59
"How Gene Editing Could Break The Rules Of Evolution
Human gene-editing is in the spotlight. We talk with young, superstar scientist Kevin Esvelt about the future of edited evolution."
http://onpoint.wbur.org/2015/11/09/gene-editing

Monday, November 09, 2015

What Can You Follow Up MaddAddam With?

In her Cli-Fi tour de force trilogy, MaddAddam* ( Oryx & Crake , The Year of The Flood   Maddaddam  ) took us in an all too believable world of run away climate change, genetic engineering and privatization.
Now Atwood takes us just a few steps into the future in her new novel The Heart Goes Last .

" What should he do to pull them out of this ditch? Whatever he has to. There used to be a lot of jobs licking ass in the corporate world, but those asses are now out of reach. Banking's left the region, manufacturing too; the digital genius outfits have migrated to fatter pastures in other, more prosperous locations and nations. Service industries used to be held out as a promise of salvation, but those jobs too are scarce, at least around here. One of Stan's uncles, dead now, had been a chef, back when cheffing was a good gig because the top slice was still living onshore and high-end restaurants were glamorous. But not today, when those kinds of customers are floating around on tax-free sea platforms just outside the offshore limit. People that rich take their own chefs with them."

Really good interview with her:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HW7LkFZGg6w


*Soon to be on TV!?

Cop Out 21




The pre-conference goals include:

Aiming for a non-binding agreement...

Still using the 2 degree C / 2050 guard rail target , despite the science  point to our already C loading enough to blow past that at high speed...




But for those who want to follow it;
http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en

An interesting after party (streaming!)

Another blog post on the subject 

Friday, November 06, 2015

Exxongate, mobilegate, Shellgate? BPgate?....


"Unless they directly lied in Congress, the legal case against them is kind of thin,” said Hal Harvey, chief of Energy Innovation, an energy consultancy. But he added, the record shows that the companies “have walked away from being a credible spokesman on science.”...
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/07/science/more-oil-companies-could-join-exxon-mobil-as-focus-of-climate-investigations.html?_r=0

Earlier post  on the subject.

Tuesday, November 03, 2015

Aquaponics* Anyone?



"Vanishing Cod, Climate Change And Our Warming Oceans
Global warming, ocean warming and the cod collapse in the Gulf of Maine. We’ll get the latest on climate change and the seas..."
http://onpoint.wbur.org/2015/11/03/climate-change-warming-oceans-cod-fishery

*Aquaponics

No Comment



"Discover the rugged majesty of the Pacific Northwest-- vast landscapes of towering fjords, magnificent glaciers and rare wildlife sightings as you learn the Arctic culture and its fascinating people. This is the ultimate expedition for the true explorer! For important FAQs on this exciting voyage, click here: Northwest Passage FAQs.

In Memoriam

Monday, November 02, 2015

A Mooset Interesting Site :)




Thank you Sherrie for the heads up on this one:

" The Maine Climate Change Adaptation Toolkit aids climate adaptation efforts by providing a centralized source to go to for the information you might need for designing and implementing resiliency practices, as well as information on important regulations and standards to integrate into your project or planning process, and opportunities to connect with state and other engaged practitioners for technical expertise. "
http://www.maine.gov/dep/sustainability/climate/adaptation-toolkit/index.html

After Global Warming


Antarctic surface geology after isostatic rebound

Planet Ocean Seminar Series | Feb 2015 | Curt Stager, PhD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJ3WnrjD15g

Interview with Joseph Tainter

Interviewed for a U of California online class, "ICS 5: Global Disruption and Information Technology"
Part 1:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6pxoclz4H0
Part 2:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgTT8yYZ1sg
 One of the interesting points in part 2; in 1940, eroi on oil drilling was 100 to 1. eroi on tar sand/shale is 3 to 1, and dropping...