Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Speaking of Earth Day...

"In the run-up to Earth Day this year, two major reports were released by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change...
Yet, one of the most disturbing stories to emerge around the reports was the New York Times report that language about the need for $100 billion in crisis funds to aid poor nations was removed from the Working Group III executive summary for policymakers during the final round of editing. The action neatly encapsulated the yawning gap between the growing danger of climate change — and growing maturity of climate scientists — on the one hand, and the utter lack of political will on the other."

http://www.salon.com/2014/04/19/why_climate_deniers_are_winning_the_twisted_psychology_that_overwhelms_scientific_consensus/

A Post for Those Who Still Think Humans Will Engage Meaningful in Mitigation

From our friends at RealClimate

RE IPCC AR5 Workgroup 3 report:

"For the first time, a detailed analysis was performed of how the 2-degree limit can be kept, based on over 1200 future projections (scenarios) by a variety of different energy-economy computer models. The analysis is not just about the 2-degree guardrail in the strict sense but evaluates the entire space between 1.5 degrees Celsius, a limit demanded by small island states, and a 4-degree world. The scenarios show a variety of pathways, characterized by different costs, risks and co-benefits. The result is a table with about 60 entries that translates the requirements for limiting global warming to below 2-degrees into concrete numbers for cumulative emissions and emission reductions required by 2050 and 2100. This is accompanied by a detailed table showing the costs for these future pathways." - See more at:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/04/mitigation-of-climate-change-part-3-of-the-new-ipcc-report/#more-17217

Here is, in full, the 2nd comment posted on site after this article:

"It’s not exactly that the monetary costs will be ‘quite low’ (0.06% Growth per year, etc.), and I think this point was made, but it’s that beneath that aggregate is a substantial– HUGE transfer of investment and wealth across all sorts of entrenched business sectors and interests, with lots of nested localized economies beneath the “country” level whose very survival is on the line (can a deep valley coal-mining town become an efficient solar hub?) As with what you said, these policy decisions necessarily transcend climate realities. When reading this report, I can’t help but think only the most shrill communist/monarchical government structures can pull off these kinds of feats. In America, the local representative system might make it impossible since it takes as few as five states to kill any program idea if its elected representatives find it a loser for them at home. And speaking of ‘home’, it needs to be said again– another huge killer of policy possibilities are environmentalists themselves who deny the reality that their backyard must also be a candidate for the large-scale deployment of energy installations in order to pull off what is said to be necessary — even more-so without Nuclear or Fracking, etc. Every wind-energy and biomass installation projects I’ve been around has faced opposition, and the most successful of the opposers have been, without fail, an environmentalist. They are the ones armed with the knowledge, can manipulate the liabilities, and are a master of appeals for further impact study/review. Given that it now can take up to 10 years to get a new large-scale energy plant installed and online, hitting those 2029 targets are going to require those who want to stand up for reducing/eliminating fossile fuels to also stand up to having lagre scale installations beyond-solar within their own eye-sight. "

Monday, April 21, 2014

You Say "Stone Age" Like it is Something Bad


My last post raised the future-as-stone-age dystopian vision, which at least amongst those condemned to live outside Short Attention Span Theatre, a more common view than you might think.
 I mean, given the current biogeophysical realities, taking past and present human behavior as a guide, it is actually a conservative view of the future. It is at least one of a group of the probable world lines.
We tend to forget that during our rise to our current prominence, most of our time was in a "stone age". If you count our hominid ancestors, That stone age (using stone tools) was close to 2 million years long. We forget that the gather-scavenger, then gather-hunter strategies are a very solid niche. That is illustrated very well in the book Pandora's Seed, by Spencer Wells.

I think the "stone age" I mean, is the Neolithic. This time, if we do simplify to that point, it won't be our first trip to the rodeo, and agriculture and other stuff would make it through the difficulties.
With a drastically reduced population a neolitic style life could go on for a very long time. To quote from the article linked in my last post, "...because we've already stripped away the surface copper and the surface iron. If we knock ourselves out of the first world, we're not going to be able to rebuild a first world."

It is uncomfortable for those of us that have become accustomed to "modern", 1st world lifestyles, to think about this at all. It seems so strange and horrific, that you get mind-freeze then get out of that by dismissing the idea.

For the folks on the cusp, during the later stages of the slide down the slope of complexity, it would be rather unpleasant of an experience. But for later generations, a "neo-neolithic" (or Neolithic II the sequel) would simply be normality. Our emotions are still on that landscape anyway. After a few centuries, the times and lifestyles we have now would be some sort of mythic past.

I'm Not Saying We Wouldn't Get Our Hair Mussed *

"Jared Diamond: We Could Be Living in a New Stone Age by 2114"
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/04/jared-diamond-inquiring-minds-humanity-survival


* A line from one of my favorite films

Monday, April 14, 2014

My take on Things

The IPCC average annual temperature estimates for the year 2100 are as high as 7.8 degrees C, and seem to favor (one they use,...) 4.8 degrees C.
I take a prudent, conservative approach. By this i mean i base my view of future human mitigation of CO2 emissions is based on the only observable, measurable data. That is, human behavior past and present.
This leads to my view that mitigation will not be a major factor, or should not be, in projecting average planetary temperature in 2100. So i am assuming an 8-12 degree C higher average in 2100, which is the range scientists posit if we simply do what we are doing now.
Just sayin...

IPCC AR5 Mitigation Report

Ah yes. The IPCC gives it the ol' college try...

Summary for "policy makers". (cough):
http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf

The full Workgroup 3 report:
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/

Discussion this a.m. on On Point:
http://onpoint.wbur.org/2014/04/14/climate-change-countdown

The whole 15 years to do something reminded me of one of my favorite old songs



Friday, April 11, 2014

Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Showtimes Gets Onboard with Climate Science

Thanks Chris for the heads up:

"Harrison Ford, Jessica Alba, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Mark Bittman and other mega-celebs lend a hand to the new Showtime series, Years of Living Dangerously—where Hollywood meets wake-up call."
http://www.outsideonline.com/outdoor-adventure/the-current/footprint/Climate-Change-Will-Be-Televised.html?utm_campaign=rss&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=xmlfeed

First episode, complete:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brvhCnYvxQQ

Series homepage:
http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/
Educator's Page: http://yearsoflivingdangerously.com/educators/

May be on Hulu Plus

Friday, April 04, 2014

Coordinating Climate Outreach in the Great Lakes Region

"Initiative leaders from Ohio State University, Michigan State University and University of Wisconsin have partnered with The River Network to continue addressing climate change impacts in the Great Lakes region and to increase capacity of Extension to educate on this topic. Last year, the initiative produced a set of core competencies, a needs assessment of Land and Sea Grant Extension educators and two distance learning courses on climate change and water resources management. This year, the initiative focused on the development of expanded education and outreach networks to address climate change adaptation and sustainable water resource management practices for communities. ..."
 http://greatlakeswater.uwex.edu/coordinating-climate-outreach-great-lakes-region

UW-Cooperative Extension Climate Ready Communities

UW-Cooperative Extension Climate Ready Communities Initiative
Wisconsin’s communities are at risk from our changing climate. Extension is able to assist communities in identifying vulnerabilities to those risks, and evaluating strategies to prepare for them. UW-Extension’s Climate Ready Communities initiative provides training and support for county and campus faculty looking to work with local government, business, agriculture, forestry and other decision makers to: ..."

https://fyi.uwex.edu/climate/

Impacts of Climate Change – Part 2 of the new IPCC Report has been approved



From the folks at RealClimate:

"The second part of the new IPCC Report has been approved – as usual after lengthy debates – by government delegations in Yokohama (Japan) and is now public. Perhaps the biggest news is this: ..."
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/04/impacts-of-climate-change-part-2-of-the-new-ipcc-report-has-been-approved/

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

CC Art


sculpture by Issac Cordal in Berlin
"Politicians discussing global warming."

Oorah !

Originally written for a local person interested in cc and energy, and planning on joining the Marines.
 
The United States Marine Corps, Energy & Climate Change


“Marines are modern-day Spartans – our ethos demands that we change the way we think about energy as we train, equip, and lead our expeditionary force…

by 2025 we will reduce by 50 percent our battlefield requirement for energy. By 2020 50 percent of our bases and stations will be net-zero energy consumers.”

USMC Expeditionary Energy Plan

Short Videos:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQCriQArXRo


What drives The Department of Defense, CIA , and NSA towards “sustainability”, is primarily a matter of two things:

The current and future impact of rapid climate Change

Energy for operations

The current and future impact of rapid climate Change

The view in the defense world of climate change is that it is a “threat multiplier/enhancer”. In essence, it makes the strategy, tactics, logistics more complex and difficult. In classic military terms it creates and enhances “friction” *
The best document I have found to date, that illustrates this point, and is a good general guide to the current thinking in the DOD is:
Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security (2011) READ THIS in ENTIRETY http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/dod/dsb/climate.pdf
RE National Security & Climate change (slow download, but a good 16 overview)
American Security Project
http://americansecurityproject.org/issues/climate-energy-and-security/new-climate-change-home-page-oct-25/
The Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC®), The search "climate change" results:
http://dsearch.dtic.mil/search?site=default_collection&q=climate+change&client=dticol_frontend&proxystylesheet=dticol_frontend&proxyreload=1&filter=0&tlen=200&getfields=*&btnG.x=0&btnG.y=0




General USMC Topic Links:

 

USMC Publications Electronic Library


 

USMC Doctrinal Publications


 

Rapid Climate Change Links, Generally

 

Rapid Climate Change Strategy (especially the materials in the bibliography)


 
Energy for operations
Energy (fuels and electricity) are crucial to any military endeavor, and an abundance of energy is crucial to the U.S. conception of full spectrum dominance of the battlespace.
Having your energy logistics separate from that of the civilian sources is basic military common sense. Since the civil government of the United States has intentionally or by non-action decided to maintain a fossil energy base, and given to spatial and temporal problems with tying your logistical framework to that base, an alternative is needed. This is even more important when potential adversary governments are working on ending their own dependence on fossil energy. Hence the Green Fleet and Green Marine transformative change occurring in the military.

 The adoption and transition to renewable energy will increase strategic and operational flexibility. It is also deemed necessary to preserve in this century the key concept in Marine warfighting, maneuver warfare. This is the incapacitating enemy decision-making through shock and disruption

“maneuver is traditionally thought of as a spatial concept, that is, the use of maneuver to gain positional advantage. The U.S. Marine concept of maneuver however is a "warfighting philosophy that seeks to shatter the enemy’s cohesion through a variety of rapid, focused, and unexpected actions which create a turbulent and rapidly deteriorating situation with which the enemy cannot cope."

 MCDP 1 United States Marine Corps Warfighting.

The U.S. Marine manual goes on to say:

"This is not to imply that firepower is unimportant. On the contrary, firepower is central to maneuver warfare. Nor do we mean to imply that we will pass up the opportunity to physically destroy the enemy. We will concentrate fires and forces at decisive points to destroy enemy elements when the opportunity presents itself and when it fits our larger purposes."

Biofuels and renewable tech are now part of the new logistics paradigm.

Marine Corps Expeditionary Energy Office
Department of the Navy Energy, Environment and Climate Change
http://greenfleet.dodlive.mil/
Energy as a Tactical Advantage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjdYM7uSWhQ

and
http://www.hqmc.marines.mil/Portals/160/Docs/USMC%20Expeditionary%20Energy%20Strategy%20%20Implementation%20Planning%20Guidance.pdf


* “In practice, the conduct of war becomes extremely difficult because of the countless factors that impinge on it. These factors are called friction, which Clausewitz described as “the force that makes the apparently easy so difficult.” MCDP Warfighting, p.13.

An interesting article on extreme weather and CC

From the folks at RealClimate:
"Does global warming make extreme weather events worse? Here is the #1 flawed reasoning you will have seen about this question: it is the classic confusion between absence of evidence and evidence for absence of an effect of global warming on extreme weather events. Sounds complicated? It isn’t. I’ll first explain it in simple terms and then give some real-life examples. ...  "
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/03/the-most-common-fallacy-in-discussing-extreme-weather-events/

A couple bits....

Sent in by readers...

Marine base coastal adaptation project
https://dcerp.rti.org/

"Deforestation may have far greater consequences for climate change in some soils than in others, according to new research led by Yale University scientists..."
http://phys.org/news/2014-04-deforestation-sandy-soils-greater-climate.html

Monday, March 31, 2014

IPCC & Adaptation

IPCC AR5 2014 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability AR5
http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/ 

Building resilient societies.

Monday, March 17, 2014

Ag Decision Dashboard

"Weather and climate patterns are a driving force behind the success or failure of cropping systems. With U.S. corn and soybean production accounting for nearly one-third of global supplies and contributing $100 billion annually to the national economy, the ability to successfully produce crops under more variable climate conditions is critical."
https://drinet.hubzero.org/groups/u2u/decision_resources

Climate Change and Weather Extremes Video

http://sphere.ssec.wisc.edu/20140305/

Reference on science and causality

Thanks to David for this one...

Climate Change: Evidence & CausesThe Royal Society and the U. S. National Academy of Sciences (2014)
http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/exec-office-other/climate-change-full.pdf

Three Good Tools/Papers

Thanks to Anna for these:

Guidance Note 1: "Twelve reasons why climate change adaptation M&E is challenging".


 
Guidance Note 2: "Selecting indicators for climate change adaptation programming".


 
Guidance Note 3:"Theory of Change approach to climate change adaptation programming".


Webinar re these:

Join us for a Webinar on Tuesday March 25. Space is limited. Reserve your Webinar seat now at:

https://www3.gotomeeting.com/register/854613366 (9:00 AM UTC, 4:00 PM Indo-China Time (UTC+7))

Friday, March 14, 2014

A Walmart Hybrid Semi?

"CEO Doug McMillan said in his blog that he never thought Walmart's sustainability journey would lead to trucks like this.
He's referring to WAVE — Walmart Advanced Vehicle Experience — which is just beginning formal testing. The first truck to be built from carbon fiber, it is 20 percent more aerodynamic than current trucks, and its micro-turbine hybrid powertrain can run on a variety of fuels. In addition to Capstone's microturbine there's an electric motor and battery storage system..."

http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2014/03/13/walmarts-rolls-out-testing-its-carbon-fiber-wave-truck?mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRolsqXLZKXonjHpfsX56%2BUsUaa0lMI%2F0ER3fOvrPUfGjI4CS8JqI%2BSLDwEYGJlv6SgFSLHEMa5qw7gMXRQ%3D

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Defense Technical Information Center Resources

"The Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC®) has served the information needs of the Defense community for more than 65 years. DTIC reports to the Assistant Secretary of Defense For Research and Engineering ASD(RE). "

The search "climate change" results at The Defense Technical Information Center as of a.m. on date of this post. re-search using space provided at top.

Meanwhile, in the North

"While much of the continental United States endured several cold snaps in January 2014, record-breaking warmth gripped Alaska. Spring-like conditions set rivers rising and avalanches tumbling.
This map depicts land surface temperature anomalies in Alaska for January 23–30, 2014. Based on data..."
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=83032

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Agnotology

Panotano River at Tanque Verde Street Bridge , Tucson  Jay Moynihan 2014

Wikipedia article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agnotology

Monday, February 10, 2014

Climate Change viewing via Google Earth


Google Earth interface for CRUTEM4 land temperature data




My neck of the woods (E. Wisconsin)


Instructions: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/crutem/ge/

Tool: CRUTEM4-2013-03_gridboxes.kml

Thursday, February 06, 2014

Collapse of Complex Societies by Dr. Joseph Tainter

His talk on the basics from a sustainability conference in 2010. Part 1 of 7.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddmQhIiVM48&list=PL7D613ABAE66E3452&index=1

Joseph Tainter- The fundamental Question of Sustainability

Lecture in Sweden, January 23, 2014. Poor video quality, better to listen than watch.
http://bambuser.com/v/4291476

Tuesday, February 04, 2014

Downscaling Assistance

USGS Regional and Global Climate downscaling site
"This website provides visualization and access to global and regional (downscaled) climate data. We also provide access to data, figures and other information associated with our climate change research publications. We currently are serving fine scale present and future climate data obtained from dynamical and statistical downscaling efforts. In the near future we will be adding global and regional scale paleoclimate data sets. Data related to publications will be added and updated as available."
http://regclim.coas.oregonstate.edu/index.html

USGS Regional Climate Downloader
http://regclim.coas.oregonstate.edu/visualization/rcd/regional-climate-downloader/index.html#

Friday, January 31, 2014

California Drought

"They are praying for rain in California. And facing drought. A drought emergency, Governor Jerry Brown declared last week. Worst in years. Winter weather so warm you’ve got a confused bear wandering through skiers on the slopes last week. So dry that farmers are thinning herds and letting fields go fallow. Wondering which crops to lose. Up in the Sierra Nevada, only 20 percent of the normal snow pack. Less to melt, less to drink. It’s just dry. This hour On Point: fire, food, climate and the drought emergency in California."
http://onpoint.wbur.org/2014/01/27/california-drought-food-supply

Thursday, January 23, 2014

So it Begins...

"The European Union scaled back its long-term climate and energy ambitions on Wednesday, proposing less stringent targets than in the past, because of tougher economic conditions and the need to curb rising energy costs."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/22/eu-climate-idUSL5N0KW1Y120140122

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Steerage is a Bit Crowded on Spaceship Earth

 
The above should be of peculiar interest to folks in Wisconsin

178 OXFAM BRIEFING PAPER 20 JANUARY 2014
 Working for the Few
"Economic inequality is rapidly increasing in the majority of countries. The wealth of the world is divided in two: almost half going to the richest one percent; the other half to the remaining 99 percent. The World Economic Forum has identified this as a major risk to human progress. Extreme economic inequality and political capture are too often interdependent. Left unchecked, political institutions become undermined and governments overwhelmingly serve the interests of economic elites to the detriment of ordinary people. Extreme inequality is not inevitable, and it can and must be reversed quickly. "
Full Report


World top income database:

U.S. page there:

Thursday, January 16, 2014

From the Department of Obvious

"Another 15 years of failure to limit carbon emissions could make the problem virtually impossible to solve with current technologies, experts found."

Does that mean impossible in Second Life? More likely there i would wager.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/17/science/earth/un-says-lag-in-confronting-climate-woes-will-be-costly.html?nl=afternoonupdate&emc=edit_au_20140116&_r=0

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Threat Enhancement and Multiplication















From the folks at the Center for Climate and Security

"The Vermont Journal of Environmental Law hosted a symposium on October, 25th titled ”Rising Temps and Emerging Threats: The Intersection of Climate Change and National Security in the 21st Century.” The symposium included an outstanding group of speakers and covered some very pertinent topics. All of the panels have also been uploaded to their YouTube station."
Videos of panels and presentations:
http://climateandsecurity.org/2013/11/18/icymi-symposium-on-the-intersection-of-climate-change-and-national-security-in-the-21st-century/

Change in the Fields

"The fall crop is in, harvested. But the map of what we grow, where, is changing, with climate change. We’ll look at the new map of North American food production."

http://onpoint.wbur.org/2013/11/19/climate-change-corn-belt-north-dakota


From Stanford:
Food Security, Food Prices and Climate Change
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qm28Vey5LY4

Center for Food Security & the Environment
http://foodsecurity.stanford.edu/

Thursday, November 14, 2013

So Much for the Warming Slowdown ...

"A new study by British and Canadian researchers shows that the global temperature rise of the past 15 years has been greatly underestimated. The reason is the data gaps in the weather station network, especially in the Arctic. If you fill these data gaps using satellite measurements, the warming trend is more than doubled in the widely used HadCRUT4 data, and the much-discussed “warming pause” has virtually disappeared."
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/11/global-warming-since-1997-underestimated-by-half/#more-16173

Thursday, November 07, 2013

I love this!

Thanks to Noah Newman for the heads up on this one...

Climate Change:

 Simple

 Serious

 Solvable
Scott Denning , Colorado State University
 
 
I must add, (from a British CC Comedian that i cannot not remember the name of...)
 
"Climate change, like comedy, is all in the timing."
 

How about your Congressional District?


A cool tool about a hot topic. Thanks to Dave Liebl & Bill Klase, for the heads up on this one.

"Scientists tell us that the global average temperatures over land have warmed 1.4 degrees F since 1880. But how have temperatures changed here in the US, in my state, in my congressional district? This site compares the global warming with temperature trends at local levels. Find your state …"

http://temperaturetrends.org/home.html

Who does this site? 
http://temperaturetrends.org/aboutus.html

 For my local peeps, here is the 8th Congressional District:
http://temperaturetrends.org/district.php?district=8&state=WI

A good addition for this post, on what is "variability and trend":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0vj-0imOLw

Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Impacts on Ecosystems


ESA Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment Vol. 11 (11/2013)
Open to all for PDF's of articles re climate change impact on ecosystems.
 http://www.esajournals.org/toc/fron/11/9

EPA Adaptation Implementation Plans

"In early November, 2013 EPA released 17 Program and Regional Adaptation Implementation Plans for a 60 day public comment period. The public is invited to review and provide comment on the draft Implementation Plans through the public docket at www.regulations.gov (Docket Number EPA-HQ-OA-2013-0568). The docket will open as soon as the Federal Register Notice is published. If you are providing comments through the public docket, it is important to identify which of the 17 Plans your comments refer to. Thank you for your interest and assistance."
http://epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/fed-programs/EPA-impl-plans.html

Region 5: http://epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/impacts-adaptation/region-5-plan.pdf

Fair, Balanced AND....Accurate

"Los Angeles Times has banned letters from climate sceptics because the information they present is inaccurate. And The Sydney Morning Herald might do the same..."
http://www.thefifthestate.com.au/archives/56427/?goback=%2Egde_59930_member_5801648095158624257#%21

Monday, October 28, 2013

Low Emission Scenarios are Not Conservative, Not Prudent

It is amusing how people use low to moderate emission models when trying to gauge future impacts of rapid climate change, or adaptation strategies. They are based on something never yet observed; human efforts globally on mitigation. I suggest being conservative, or better, being prudent. Base your planning and strategies of high emission scenarios. They actually are based on past and current, observable human behavior. That is no global effort on mitigation.

 

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Space of Flows

Sociologist Manuel Castells has been called the Durkheim of our age, primarily due his 3 volume masterwork,  The Information Age: Economy, Society, and Culture. Here is an interesting bit of writing about him and one of his ideas.

http://www.richardgilbert.ca/Files/SFU%20course%20files/Francke,%20Ham,%20Castells%20Space%20of%20Flows.pdf

BTW: his latest book is:

Networks of Outrage and Hope: Social Movements in the Internet Age


Monday, October 21, 2013

Architecture, Design and changing Climate

Complete content of the Association of Collegiate Schools of Architecture 2013 conference, plus,
http://www.acsa-arch.org/programs-events/conferences/fall-conference/2013-fall-conference

The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability




The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability 
Camilo Mora1, Abby G. Frazier1, Ryan J. Longman1, Rachel S. Dacks2, Maya M.Walton2,3, Eric J. Tong3,4, Joseph J. Sanchez1, Lauren R. Kaiser1, Yuko O. Stender1,3, James M. Anderson2,3, Christine M. Ambrosino2,3, Iria Fernandez-Silva3,5, Louise M. Giuseffi1 & Thomas W. Giambelluca1
doi:10.1038/nature12540 
"Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given locationmoves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (618 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperatureunderanemissions stabilizationscenario and2047 (614 years s.d.)undera ‘business-as-usual’scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity
and society are to be prevented."
1Department of Geography, University of Hawai‘i at Ma¯noa, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822, USA. 2Department of Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Ma¯noa, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822, USA. 3Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Ma¯noa, Ka¯ne‘ohe, Hawai‘i 96744, USA. 4Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai‘i at Ma¯noa, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822, USA. 5Trans-disciplinary Organization for Subtropical Island Studies (TRO-SIS), University of the Ryukyus, Senbaru, Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213, Japan.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7470/full/nature12540.html

A website re the paper with good interpretive material.
http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/mora/PublicationsCopyRighted/Cities%20Timing.html

Note: I got the heads up on this on the CLN listserv. Discussion there is;
"... the timing question is"In essence, when will the extreme coolest January/etc. be warmer than the historical extreme hottest January/etc." or, to put it another way,  "In essence, when will the extreme coolest [Insert month here] be warmer than the historical extreme hottest [insert same month here]."

Tuesday, October 15, 2013