Some thoughts on Climate Change Adaptation Education

One of the re-occurring themes I have noted in discussions about climate change adaptation education at the local level is the practical problem of early stage curricula development under conditions of significant uncertainty.

This seems to be due to 3 things:
First, the science, contains uncertainity the more it is scaled down to locality and forward in time.
Second, The difficulty of understanding uncertainity in an audience that may not be scientifically literate.
Third, the interplay between these first two, and the political landscape.


In a way though, “adaptation” may be initially learning to deal with uncertainty.
What we do know is that civilization as we know it rose during the comfortable, predictable days in the middle of a post glaciation period. So any rapid climate change will be disruptive for people, depending on where they are, what they are doing, and what the changes that take place:


• Are where they are


• Are in other places that have an effect on them

While models and other scientific advances are enabling us to make projections and learn more and better connect the dots; uncertainty is not avoidable. To some extent, uncertainty will be part of adapting to rapid climate change through the process of the change, the eventual slowing and reversing of the energy input, which of course will be followed by climate change in a different direction.
I like to say to folks, climate change is not our problem. The problem is the rate of the change. Even with the explosion of paleo data underway, all scenarios will not be modeled. It is also apparent that the current rate of change is unprecedented compared to the last 55 million years. That in itself augments uncertainty.
This is the first time we (as “civilized” humans) have had to deal with a significant change in climate. So the average person, even if educated does not have a context. The recent increase in the speed of development of the various paleo-disciplines due to the need for comparative information from the past does help. But the information is noisy the further back you go. But the data is there and useful. And, we can see similar periods to modeled future conditions. But to be comfortable with that type of information, one has to be pretty scientifically literate.


The farther something is in the future the more “coarse grained” it is. The closer in time, the “finer” the grain. This makes sense since many possibilities collapse into fewer probabilities as we move along our world line ( World lines: http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A3086039  ) .

A Lorentz Transformation diagram (Wikipedia)
Views of spacetime along the world line of an observer (center) moving in a 1-dimensional (straight line) "universe". The vertical direction indicates time, while the horizontal indicates distance, the dashed line is the spcetime trajectory ("worldline" ) of the observer. The small dots are specific events in spacetime.  Note how the view of spacetime changes when the observer accelerates.

In our future, for our communities, as the possible collapses into the probable which collapses then into highly probable, decisions will have to made, made faster, in an environment of much more relevant detail.


“Rather than try to predict specific climatic changes with great precision, which many climate scientists believe is impossible even with the most sophisticated models, an increasing number of experts favor preparing strategies that enhance general adaptability in anticipation of a wide range of possible futures.” Deep Future by Curt Stager, page 200.


Idea:


I would suggest that we consider that our initial outreach method be three-fold.



1. Public education on the best information on the science, the set of probable (not just highly probable) impacts and the uncertainties.


Reasons:


• Citizens need to learn about the science to a little degree.


• They need to learn about uncertainty, probability vs possibility, about scientific thinking etc. In future decades, as the change intensifies in both impact and in rate, those subjects, being able to tolerate them and use them will be adaptation skills in themselves.


• The ability to understand the science and use it in decision making will be key adaptation skills for our citizens, and may become essential skills for more lines of work.


The information used for public education be frequently updated, as the combined effects of increased research ability combined with our “forward” motion through time continues to collapse possibilities to probabilities with ever finer detail.


2. That generally, and within task areas (wetland management, waste/sewage/, emergency government etc. etc. etc.) we teach using not a less detailed “probable” future, but multiple probable futures. We and our learners approach adaptation by using differing scenarios (Scenario Planning methods, not exclusively, be used).

• This would embrace and use the uncertainty.


• By considering 3 or so scenarios, it is sometimes possible to come up with a more flexible adaptive strategy.


• It is for participants good mental “calisthenics”, good exercise for dealing with change.


3. Over time


That as our collective skill sets for dealing with the change on different landscapes and amongst different societies develops, we share with our local learners. Sharing relevant information, case studies and with time, best practices. We could also provide opportunities for facilitated peer learning for our citizens/communities.