Monday, November 26, 2012

For those Interested in Sooty Scenarios

I have been working on some figuring of some of broad brush adaptation needs on a local level, trying to take in many variables. These include global factors.

One of them, in the assuming-no-coordinated-mitigation-response-soon assumption; is what i call the Asian High Mountain Complex (AHMC)Simplification scenario.
This scenario is based on:
  • Declining fresh water reserves (underway)
  • Asian High Mountain Complex glacial retreat (underway)
  • Steady to increasing salinization of coastal Asian aquifiers due to salt water instrusion due to ocean thermal expansion (underway)
  • South Asian population growth rate in 21st Century expected to highest
  • Regional nuclear powers present (current)
So one world line is a regional scale nuclear exchange (given glacial retreat rate therefore water stress, therefore conflict etc.) no later than mid-century.  If the regional escalated to global, that is to "noisy" for analysis. Nuke use gives (depending on your spacial, yield and rate scaling of use) real predictive headaches, since it in theory leads to more suspended particle matter, therefore cooling, etc., but i digress.

In researching, i ran across this stuff, which may be of interest...

War-related climate change would substantially reduce crop yields http://www.nelson.wisc.edu/news/news-details.php?e=1533

Global air transport background:
http://capita.wustl.edu/capita/capitareports/010501pops/finalreporttransportvisual.htm

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/dust-imports.html

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