Climate Extremes: Recent Trends with Implications for National Security (2012)

CLIMATE EXTREMES AND NATIONAL SECURITY – THE BOTTOM LINE Having arrived at a condition where climate change has been identified as a likely threat to U.S. national security interests, but with little ability to clarify the nature of expected climate impacts over a timeframe that is relevant to security decision-makers, the authors decided to focus on the near-term impacts from climate change (over the next decade). In short, the analysis finds that, absent unknown or unpredictable forces, the increase in extreme events observed in the past decade is likely to continue in the near term as accelerated warming and natural variability combine to produce changing weather conditions around the world. This will impact Water Security, Energy Security, Food Security, and Critical Infrastructure, and brings into focus the need to consider the accelerating nature of climate stress, in concert with the more traditional political, economic, and social indicators.

http://environment.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/climate_extremes_report_2012-12-04.pdf

A CIA funded study.