The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability 
Camilo Mora1, Abby G. Frazier1, Ryan J. Longman1, Rachel S. Dacks2, Maya M.Walton2,3, Eric J. Tong3,4, Joseph J. Sanchez1, Lauren R. Kaiser1, Yuko O. Stender1,3, James M. Anderson2,3, Christine M. Ambrosino2,3, Iria Fernandez-Silva3,5, Louise M. Giuseffi1 & Thomas W. Giambelluca1
doi:10.1038/nature12540 
"Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given locationmoves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (618 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperatureunderanemissions stabilizationscenario and2047 (614 years s.d.)undera ‘business-as-usual’scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity
and society are to be prevented."
1Department of Geography, University of Hawai‘i at Ma¯noa, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822, USA. 2Department of Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Ma¯noa, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822, USA. 3Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Ma¯noa, Ka¯ne‘ohe, Hawai‘i 96744, USA. 4Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai‘i at Ma¯noa, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822, USA. 5Trans-disciplinary Organization for Subtropical Island Studies (TRO-SIS), University of the Ryukyus, Senbaru, Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213, Japan.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7470/full/nature12540.html

A website re the paper with good interpretive material.
http://www.soc.hawaii.edu/mora/PublicationsCopyRighted/Cities%20Timing.html

Note: I got the heads up on this on the CLN listserv. Discussion there is;
"... the timing question is"In essence, when will the extreme coolest January/etc. be warmer than the historical extreme hottest January/etc." or, to put it another way,  "In essence, when will the extreme coolest [Insert month here] be warmer than the historical extreme hottest [insert same month here]."